Based on his analysis of intra-quarter data points and checks, he expects Apple to report in-line Q3 results.
He thinks the company’s late-April guidance commentary likely adequately accounted for headwinds (including the impact of the supply chain crisis, lower China demand, FX impact, and paused shipments to Russia) during the quarter.
He modeled revenue/EPS at $80.8 billion/$1.14, slightly below the current consensus at $82.8 billion/$1.16.
Further, Rakers believes his below-consensus Q3 iPhone revenue estimate could prove conservative as he has seen what he would consider being some net-positive intra-quarter data points.
He saw some potential downside to his $10.2 billion Mac estimate (versus Street: $8.7 billion) following weak preliminary 2Q22 sell-in PC shipment data from IDC.
He continued to expect double-digit services growth in F3Q22 with some moderation.
The re-rating reflected Apple’s competitive differentiation and overall deepening product/services portfolio creating sustainable brand loyalty, strong balance sheet, and sustainable FCF generation, continually funding a solid capital return strategy, and the continued expansion of Apple’s recurring paid subscriber base.
Price Action: AAPL shares traded higher by 1.68% at $153.48 on the last check Wednesday.
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