Why the Postwar 1940s May Tell Us More About Our Inflation Than the ’70s

As inflation stirs, economists have fixated on the 1970s. That’s a mistake, says Guggenheim’s chief investment officer, Scott Minerd, who believes the causes of the Great Inflation of the ’70s—funding the Vietnam War and Great Society, delinking the dollar from gold, energy crises—don’t relate to 2022. A more appropriate era, he says, is after World War II, when manufacturing disruptions, rising demand, savings and money growth drove prices.

Minerd’s argument is, in part, a defense of “transitory” inflation driven by pandemic…

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